Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Kalkaska → Traverse City, MI

Ride the Iceman Cometh Challenge on a plan, not a hunch

Kalkaska Airport to Timber Ridge, Traverse City. 30 miles of dirt road, two-track, abandoned rail bed and the Vasa trail. Redline Athlete forecasts your finish time from your own numbers and turns it into pace targets and a fueling plan, with the critical markers generated automatically for your head unit or watch.

No card. No account needed to try it.

01 · The course

Thirty miles, priced out

30.0 miPoint to point
1,582 ftTotal climbing · 53 ft per mile
22Distinct climbs
0.5%Of the course above 10% grade

High point 1,439 ft. Low point 1,025 ft. The course crosses only one paved road, Williamsburg Rd at mile 17, and runs through named sections riders talk about all year: Dockery Hills, Gussied Up, Make It Stick, Icebreaker and Woodchip Hill. It is faster and flatter than a Chequamegon or a Marji Gesick, which is exactly why pacing it wrong is so easy, nothing here forces you to back off.

02 · Terrain

64% rolling ground, run wide open

20% up64% rolling16% down

Dirt road and two-track for most of the distance, with sand and loamy singletrack mixed through the technical sections and the Vasa trail near the finish. Nothing on the course sustains a long grade. The steepest pitches are short, punchy kicks rather than climbs you settle into, which is a different kind of hard than a long grind, it rewards someone who can go into the red repeatedly and recover fast, not just someone with a big engine.

03 · Fatigue

A short race still has a wrong way to ride it

For a sample rider treating this as a steady, moderate effort rather than an all-out race, the model's leg fatigue curve rises through the ride and finishes well loaded. Race it harder and that curve moves a lot faster than the extra speed is worth.

Mile 4.2 · steepest early kickReserve dips to 78%
Finish · sample rider84% fatigue

Climbing is 20% of the distance but 27% of the time, 1.35 times its share, smaller than a course with real sustained climbs but still real. Descending is 16% of the distance for 12% of the time. At 30 miles the whole race is over inside three hours for most riders, which means pacing mistakes made in the first ten minutes are still costing you at the finish.

04 · What you get

What you get for the Iceman

Your finish time

A forecast built from your weight, fitness, and the course file, with pace targets by segment so you know what "on plan" feels like at mile 15.

Leg fatigue curve

See where a fast, punchy course spends your legs, even without a single long climb to blame it on.

Fueling plan & bonk risk

What to eat, how much, and when, placed along the course. At under three hours for most riders it is a smaller plan than a Chequamegon, and the calculator sizes it that way instead of over-fueling you.

Pace vs cost

See what going out harder in the first few miles actually buys you by the finish, and where the trade stops being worth it.

05 · Impact

What the punchy sections take from the tank

Fatigue is the slow bill. Anaerobic reserve is the one you pay on the spot, every time a short kick or a sandy rise pushes you above threshold, which matters more on a course built from short punchy sections than on one with long climbs.

For a sample rider it dips to 78% at mile 4.6 and finishes at 85%, a shallower drain than a longer race like the Chequamegon 40, because no single effort here is long enough to spend the reserve deeply. The costliest single pitch is at mile 4.2, spending 4.3 kJ; the ground right after it, mile 4.6 to 5.8, hands back 2.0 kJ. On a course built from repeated short efforts rather than one long grind, staying out of the red on the ones that do not matter is most of the game.

06 · On your bars

The plan follows you onto the trail

A printed sheet is only good until you stop looking at it. Redline Athlete places markers at the points that matter, your fuel stops, the technical sections, the punchy climbs, and exports them straight to your head unit.

Auto-placed or your own

The model marks the decisive sections and your fuel points automatically. Rename or add your own, and it remembers what you typed.

GPX or TCX export

Wahoo and Zepp read either. Garmin needs TCX to show course points on the map, not just a cue sheet, so that is the one to pick if you ride a Garmin.

Announces before you get there

Your device beeps at the fuel stop and the punchy section, not after you have already ridden through it.

Three steps before race morning

  1. Load the course. Upload a GPX of the Iceman Cometh Challenge route.
  2. Say what the ground is. The trail’s own corners suggest where the ground changes; you name each section or describe the course in a sentence. Worth 13 to 17% of a finish time.
  3. Set the pace and get the plan. Weight and fitness once, then one slider drawn on what each pace costs: finish forecast, reserve at the line, fatigue curve, a fueling schedule, and the markers that matter sent to your head unit or watch. No power meter required.

Iceman Cometh Challenge questions

How long does the Iceman Cometh Challenge take?

It depends on you. The front of the race finishes well under two hours while much of the field rides two to three. That spread is exactly why an average is useless: the calculator forecasts your time from your own numbers.

Is it really free?

Yes. Run the full analysis as a guest, no account. Pro ($9/month, or $59/year) adds saved rides and a saved athlete profile.

Does it know about the sand?

The model reads elevation and curvature straight from your GPX, so it does not know a stretch is loose sand unless you tell it. Set trail conditions in the calculator if a section runs soft, and the plan adjusts.

Find out what mile 17 is going to cost

Same course, your fitness, your pacing. Two minutes of setup now beats thirty miles of guessing on November 7.

Other race plans

Same model, one page per course.

Every race on the calendar