Hayward to Cable. 41.6 miles. Here is what the course actually asks of you, before you line up for it. Redline Athlete forecasts your finish time from your own numbers and turns it into pace targets and a fueling plan, with the critical markers generated automatically for your head unit or watch.
No card. No account needed to try it.
High point 1,732 ft at mile 25.3. Low point 1,188 ft at mile 0.4. The biggest single climb is 267 ft from mile 24.3, straight into the high point.
Seventeen percent up, seventeen percent down, and no climb long enough to make anyone soft-pedal. It never pitches up hard and it never lets you stop pedaling. The trail runs green and smooth all the way out of Hayward; the moderate and technical hits cluster in the last third around Rock Lake, exactly where the legs are already gone. And then there is Fire Tower.
For a sample rider, the model's leg fatigue curve stays flat and green for the first sixteen miles, then it never comes back down. Everything you eat before OO is free.
Climbing is 17% of the distance but 28% of the time, 1.6 times its share. On this course the climbs are the ride, and time saved anywhere else is rounding error. Descending is 17% of the distance for 11% of the time, so that is where handling buys you more than fitness does. Your own curve moves with your fitness, weight, and pacing. That is the point of running your numbers.
The model is fitted against real race files, not lab assumptions. On a Chequamegon 40 validation ride:
Your prediction comes with a confidence range, because honesty beats a single flattering number.
A forecast built from your weight, fitness, and the course file, with pace targets by segment so you know what "on plan" feels like at mile 20.
See where the course spends your legs, and why the miles after OO decide the race even though the profile looks flat on paper.
What to eat, how much, and when, placed along the course, with a warning when your plan does not cover the effort. Fuel after Fire Tower for the last push.
Ten more watts on this course saves about eleven minutes and costs about four points of end-of-ride fatigue for a sample rider. See where the trade stops being worth it for you.
Fatigue is the slow bill. Anaerobic reserve is the one you pay on the spot, every time a short wall or a punch out of a corner pushes you above threshold.
For a sample rider it dips to 61% at mile 29.5 and is back to 99% by the finish, mostly refilled by the flatter miles that follow. The single costliest pitch is at mile 24.3, a 5.1% climb that spends 7.4 kJ in one shot; the stretch right after it, mile 25.3 to 27.5, hands back 5.1 kJ, almost exactly what the next hard effort costs. Push through that recovery window instead of using it and you show up short for what comes next.
A printed sheet is only good until you stop looking at it. Redline Athlete places markers at the points that matter, the climb that decides your race, your fuel stops, the technical sections, and exports them straight to your head unit.
The model marks the decisive climb and your fuel points automatically. Rename or add your own, and it remembers what you typed.
Wahoo and Zepp read either. Garmin needs TCX to show course points on the map, not just a cue sheet, so that is the one to pick if you ride a Garmin.
Your device beeps at the fuel stop and the climb, not after you have already ridden past it.
It depends on you. The front of the race finishes near two hours while much of the field rides three to four. That spread is exactly why an average is useless: the calculator forecasts your time from your own numbers.
Yes. Run the full analysis as a guest, no account. Pro ($9/month, or $59/year) adds saved rides and a saved athlete profile.
Yes. Upload the 16-mile course file instead. The physics does not care which start line you pick.
Same course, your fitness, your pacing. Two minutes of setup now beats forty-one miles of guessing on September 19.
Same model, one page per course.