The WHOOP UCI Mountain Bike World Series races cross country Olympic at Soldier Hollow on September 20. Here is what a World Cup engine does on a public Soldier Hollow lap, next to what an everyday rider does on the same lap, from the same model. Not a guess about pros. The same physics the free app runs on your file.
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Read the shape, not the number. The line climbs steeply for the first 1.1 miles, then goes flat for a mile: down the descent the pro gains nothing, because the trail sets the speed there and both riders are at it. Then it climbs again on the rolling second half. Half of a 7:29 lap deficit is one 328 foot climb. Fitness buys time going up. Going down, it buys almost none.
A World Cup XCO lap is 3.5 to 4.5 km and an elite race runs 80 to 90 minutes over 5 to 9 laps. This loop is about two World Cup laps long, so four of it is a World Cup length day at a World Cup rider's pace. The organizers are promising multiline sections and a big natural rock feature on the real course; a public trail loop has neither, and the model does not pretend to price them. Figures from an AllTrails route of the Upper Soldier Hollow, Soldier Hollow South and South Loop trails (5.1 mi, 643 ft per lap, 5,528 to 5,867 ft), the UCI's description of the XCO format (laps of 3.5 to 4.5 km, elite races of 80 to 90 minutes) and the published World Cup schedule. When you load the course file, the app measures it for itself.
328 feet in the first 1.1 miles, at 5,600 feet, and then a descent where extra watts buy nothing. That is the whole story of the gap, and it is the whole story of most cross country laps.
The model has the World Cup rider up the opening climb in 5:05 at 443 W. The guest rider takes 8:59 at 269 W. That one climb is 3:48 of a 7:29 lap deficit, and it comes around 4 times.
From the top of the climb to the bottom of the descent, the gap line goes flat. The trail's corners cap speed for both riders, and once you are at that cap, fitness stops paying. This is the part of the model that is honest about what it cannot see: a World Cup rider descends faster through skill the model has no term for, and the real course's rock section will widen this.
The World Cup rider arrives acclimated and gives up 2.7% of threshold power to the altitude. The guest rider, in from sea level, gives up 7.8%. The app asks which one you are.
The pro's plan is capped by the reserve, not by the legs: at 320 W average the model empties the anaerobic reserve on the second lap's climb, so the fastest plan that finishes is 292 W, with the reserve reaching zero at the top of the last climb. That is what a good pacing plan looks like: nothing left, and nothing left too early.
A forecast from your weight, fitness and the course file, with a pace target you can hold rather than an average someone else rode.
Every climb ranked by what it takes out of your anaerobic reserve, not by how tall it looks. On this lap it is the same climb every time, and the question is which lap it empties you on. The plan says.
Carbohydrate burned against what you can absorb, hour by hour, with a warning when the plan runs short. Ninety minutes is inside what most riders can carry in the tank; a two hour day at altitude for the guest rider is not. The plan says which side of that line you are on.
The longest climb, the hardest one for you, the recovery window before it and the technical stretch late in the day, sent to your Garmin, Wahoo or watch as waypoints.
The model is fitted against recorded races, not lab assumptions. On a Chequamegon 40 validation ride it predicted 2:24:28 against an actual finish of 2:24:20.
Your prediction comes with a confidence range, because honesty beats a single flattering number. The two riders on this page are model output on a public trail loop, not a recorded race. When a Soldier Hollow file with power is shared, the altitude term gets its first check above 5,000 feet, and this page gets the result.
The WHOOP UCI Mountain Bike World Series round at Soldier Hollow runs short track (XCC) on Saturday, September 19, 2026 and cross country Olympic (XCO) on Sunday, September 20, 2026. The elite men start at 3:30 pm Mountain time. It is the first time Soldier Hollow has hosted a World Cup round.
No. The UCI has not published the 2026 lap. The numbers here come from a public 5.1 mile loop of the Upper Soldier Hollow, Soldier Hollow South and South Loop trails on the same hill, ridden 4 times to fill a World Cup length race. The real course will be shorter per lap, more technical and, the organizers say, built around a natural rock section. When the official file is out, this page gets it.
Soldier Hollow Nordic Center is in Midway, Utah, in the Heber Valley about 50 miles southeast of Salt Lake City. It hosted the 2002 Olympic cross country skiing and biathlon, and the mountain bike trails sit between roughly 5,500 and 7,000 feet.
A World Cup XCO is 80 to 90 minutes of laps between 3.5 and 4.5 km, with 5 to 9 laps. On this loop the model has a 150 pound rider with a 350 W threshold averaging 292 W and 13.4 mph for 1:31:15. The winner on Sunday will be quicker than that, mostly through skill on the descents the model cannot price, and by riding harder than a steady plan allows.
About 5.1 watts per kilogram at threshold, a solid professional number. The sharp end of a World Cup field sits closer to 5.8 to 6 W/kg. The guest rider on this page is 3.3 W/kg, which is a fit weekend racer. The model treats both the same way: weight, threshold power, the course file and the air.
Yes. The free guest app opens with a course loaded and the same weight and threshold as the guest rider on this page; change them to yours and the plan re-solves. Load any GPX, including the Soldier Hollow trails from AllTrails or Trailforks, and it prices that instead.
Same model, one page per course.
The guest app opens with this rider's numbers and a course loaded. Change the weight and threshold to yours, and find out where the 30 minutes would come from for you.