The opening round of the Texas marathon series: 38 miles on laps of the canyon floor, with 28 and 14 mile options. Redline Athlete forecasts your finish from your own numbers, prices every climb against your reserve, and puts the plan on your head unit.
No card. No account needed to try it.
Laps rather than a point to point, so the plan multiplies the lap and tells you what lap two and lap three cost when they are ridden on lap one legs. The climbing figure is from a rider-shared route of the 2025 lap; the organiser has not published one. Figures from the TMBRA calendar and event page (38, 28 and 14 mile options) and a rider-shared Trailforks lap (16.6 mi, 1,192 ft). When you load the course file, the app measures it for itself.
Seventy feet per mile is gentle on paper. What a lap race asks is whether you rode lap one at lap-one pace, which is the mistake the plan exists to prevent.
Set the lap count and the plan predicts each lap, including how much slower the last one is than the first. Riding lap one at lap-one pace is the usual mistake.
Canyon-floor climbs are short and sharp and come from your anaerobic reserve rather than your aerobic base. The plan ranks them by what they cost you.
Even in November the canyon can run warm and there is no shade. Set the temperature you expect and the plan adjusts your sustainable power and your fluid warning.
Load your distance, not the marathon, if you are riding the 28 or the 14. The physics is the same; only the number of laps changes.
A forecast from your weight, fitness and the course file, with a pace target you can hold rather than an average someone else rode.
Every climb ranked by what it takes out of your anaerobic reserve, not by how tall it looks. On short climbs the reserve empties and refills many times; the plan shows the windows where it comes back.
Carbohydrate burned against what you can absorb, hour by hour, with a warning when the plan runs short. Three to five hours in dry air: the fluid warning matters more here than the carbohydrate one.
The longest climb, the hardest one for you, the recovery window before it and the technical stretch late in the day, sent to your Garmin, Wahoo or watch as waypoints.
The model is fitted against recorded races, not lab assumptions. On a Chequamegon 40 validation ride it predicted 2:24:28 against an actual finish of 2:24:20.
Your prediction comes with a confidence range, because honesty beats a single flattering number. Palo Duro has not yet been run through the model on a recorded file. When a rider shares one, this page gets its own numbers.
The front of the 38 finishes in under three hours and the field spreads to five. The calculator forecasts your time from your own numbers, lap by lap.
Yes. Load the lap and set the lap count for your distance.
Yes. Run the full analysis as a guest, no account. Pro ($9/month, or $59/year) adds saved rides, a saved athlete profile and the head-unit export.
Same model, one page per course.
Same course, your fitness, your pacing. Two minutes of setup now beats thirty-eight miles of guessing.